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Wednesday, October 13, 2021

The Telegraph: EU will lose the war with Poland


This is not the first sign that Poland is absolutely right in the latest argument with the EU, but it is significant. 

Without publicity Poland has built one of the most stable economies in the world and Brussels will not be able to simply "put it in a corner." Some in the EU do not seem to notice that shrinking, debt-ridden economies have no basis to chastise those that are growing and do so with low levels of debt, writes Matthew Lynn for The Telegraph.

Poland does not want to agree to all the new rules proposed to it by the European Union and is politically shifting to the right. After the decision of Poland's Constitutional Tribunal to reject the primacy of European law over the constitution, it goes into a head-on collision with the European Commission. Among the European politicians, slogans are already being heard about Poland being cut off from EU funding in order to force it to comply. But it is a fight that the EU will lose.

Polexit is currently not a realistic scenario, but in the Brussels-Warsaw clash, Poland is the party that will ultimately win - writes The Telegraph.

This is because a total war with Poland would further enlarge the dimension of the crisis with which the Union has been struggling for some time. Also because the attitude of the European Commission only strengthens the patriotic and national camp in Poland, but above all because Poland has quietly built one of the most stable economies in the world, and there is nothing to fear from the unceremonious threats of Ursula von der Leyen.

Brussels cannot even count on the European Central Bank to use its dirty games against Poland, as it did in the case of Greece and Italy. Poland has its own currency and its own central bank and a relatively low level of debt,  There is simply no leverage here they could use.

The author of the piece thinks that Poland will not leave the EU anytime soon or even ever. According to him, it is too dependent on single market access. However, as was the case with Brexit, Brussels is overestimating its strength and assuming that Poland will become so submissive that it will accept any compromise, no matter how disadvantageous it may be.

Unfortunately, we should never underestimate the ego and stupidity of the Eurocrats. 


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