The average of the latest polls shows that Donald Trump is gaining an advantage over his rival, Kamala Harris, in several strategically important states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan. What both states have in common is that they have a large group of voters of Polish origin.
Poles are a unique electorate because, since 1916, they have correctly chosen the winner of the US presidential elections almost every time. In other words, the candidate who wins among the Poles ultimately wins the White House. This year's extremely close election race confirms that the Polish diaspora's vote may significantly impact presidential elections.
This week, nearly all conservative commentators reported that Donald Trump is slowly gaining support in Pennsylvania and may, in fact, win that state.
Poles are a particularly important electorate group in this presidential campaign, and Donald Trump understands this perfectly. This is also confirmed by the fact that for the first time in history, a presidential candidate found time in the final stage of the election race and gave an interview to Polish TV Republika, which is extremely popular in America. "It is clear that his staff appreciates the dimension of the Polish voice," - says Tomasz Winiarski, an Americanist, in an interview with a news portal Niezalezna.
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, and nearly a million voters of Polish origin live there, adds Winiarski.
If we look at the numbers with which Trump won in Pennsylvania in 2016, he won by only 44,000 votes. Considering how motivated some of the Polish community in Pennsylvania was to vote for Trump, it can be said that the Polish community's votes determined his final victory, – says Winiarski.
The latest polls' average shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in Michigan. Currently, the vote ratio between them is 48.7 to 48 percent in Trump's favor.
What do Michigan and Pennsylvania have in common? Nearly 800,000 voters of Polish origin live in Michigan. In 2016, Trump won there by 10,000 votes. Therefore, it is clear that the Polish diaspora can tip the scales of victory in favor of a specific candidate.
