Those who think that there is more to the incident in Poland and not just an accident are most likely correct. From the beginning, it was reported that Russian cruise missiles flew toward Poland then right before crossing the border turned east to attack their targets near the border.
Polish defense and security portal Defence24 (polish version - .pl) seems to agree with this assessment:
The missile of the Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft system could have fallen on Polish territory not because some mistake was made, but because of a provocation carried out by the Russian Federation. The Russians could deliberately direct the flight of their cruise missiles in such a way that the fragments of missiles fired at them by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense also fell on the other side of the Polish border.
Obviously, we will have to wait for the official results of the investigation, but Defence24 is correct in saying that "it can and must be clarified right if such a tragic accident may happen again in the future and why it happened at all."
The tragic event in Przewodów could have been deliberately provoked by the Russian side, which can set the flight path of its missiles in such a way that the missiles (or their fragments) flew to the other side of the border with Ukraine. So, there is a possibility that such "raids" will be repeated - only in a different place.
So, the Russians, when programming their missiles, could direct them so that they flew along the Polish border at a distance of several kilometers. And then an attack towards the west by Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles could have caused their fragments to be on Polish territory.
However, on Tuesday, November 15, 2022, the Russians succeeded and the remains of a Ukrainian (and perhaps also a Russian) rocket fell on Polish territory.
- Defence24.
